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Deficit reduction in the United States
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Deficit reduction in the United States : ウィキペディア英語版
Deficit reduction in the United States

Deficit reduction in the United States refers to taxation, spending, and economic policy debates and proposals designed to reduce the Federal budget deficit. Government agencies including the Government Accountability Office (GAO), Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and the U.S. Treasury Department have reported that the federal government is facing a series of important long-run financing challenges, mainly driven by an aging population, rising healthcare costs per person, and rising interest payments on the national debt.
CBO reported in July 2014 that the continuation of present tax and spending policies for the long-run (into the 2030s) results in a budget trajectory that causes debt to grow faster than GDP, which is "unsustainable." Further, CBO reported that high levels of debt relative to GDP may pose significant risks to economic growth and the ability of lawmakers to respond to crises.〔(CBO Long-Term Budget Outlook-July 15, 2014 )〕
==Understanding key terms==

A budget deficit refers to expenditures that exceed tax collections during a given period and require borrowing to fund the difference. The U.S. federal government has run annual deficits in 36 of the past 40 fiscal years, with surpluses from 1998-2001. Debt represents the accumulation of deficits over time. Debt held by the public, a partial measure of the U.S. national debt representing securities held by investors, rose in dollar terms each year except during the 1998-2001 surplus period. Total national debt rose in dollar terms each year from 1972-2014.〔(U.S. Treasury Direct-Historical Debt Outstanding-Retrieved October 2014 )〕
The budget deficit and debt challenge can be described using various measures:〔(CBO-An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2012 to 2022-August 22, 2012 )〕
*Dollars: The 2014 deficit was approximately $486 billion, with tax revenues of $2.75 trillion and spending or outlays of $3.45 trillion. CBO projected in February 2013 that the debt held by the public will rise from $11.3 trillion in 2012 to $18.9 trillion in 2022 under its "baseline scenario," an increase of $7.6 trillion over 10 years. The total national debt will rise from $16 trillion in 2012 to $24.9 trillion by 2022, an increase of $8.9 trillion.〔(CBO Budget and Economic Outlook-February 2013 )〕
*Deficit as percentage of the size of the economy (GDP): The historical average annual deficit pre-2008 was about 3% GDP, with 18% GDP average tax revenues and 21% GDP average expenditures. However, in 2009 the deficit rose to 10% GDP due to a combination of economic conditions and policy choices. It then fell as a % GDP for five consecutive years back to 2.8% GDP in 2014. With GDP of $16.8 trillion in 2013, 1% GDP represents approximately $170 billion.
*Debt as a percentage of GDP: Debt held by the public ranged between 23% GDP and 50% GDP during the 1971-2007 period, then rose significantly in the wake of the financial crisis and recession, ending FY2014 at about 75% GDP. As of September 30, 2014 debt held by the public was approximately $12.79 trillion. Intra-governmental debt, such as the Social Security trust fund, was at $5.03 trillion, giving a combined public debt or national debt of $17.82 trillion or about 105% GDP.〔(Treasury Direct-Monthly Statement of the Public Debt-January 2013 )〕 The debt to GDP ratio is projected to continue rising if the U.S. continues current policies.
*Unfunded liabilities: This is an actuarial concept used to measure the value in today's dollars of a difference between tax revenue and expenditures for particular programs. This concept is described further below in the sections on Social Security and Medicare.

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